Cameco Annual Report Analysis
Cameco, the world's largest uranium producer, recently released its 2005 annual report. Being a person greatly interested in the uranium sector, I have begun to read this 104 page masterpiece.
Here are some of the highlights I would like to pass along to you:
What news or events in 2006 would represent a major breakthrough for the nuclear industry?
[CEO's answer]The last year was distinguished by a number of astonishing developments in the world of nuclear energy – developments that set the stage for additional breakthroughs in 2006.
Countries representing over one-half the world's population are now building new nuclear power plants, and several others without the benefit of nuclear energy are planning for them. China and India are notable with their aggressive building programs to meet insatiable energy appetites. Energy legislation passed in the United States last August recognized, for the first time at a national level, the clean air benefits of nuclear energy and provided the encouragement to jump-start the construction of a new generation of nuclear plants. And, remarkably, several icons of the environmental movement abandoned their anti-nuclear dogma and came out strongly in favour of an accelerated nuclear construction program to mitigate the consequences of global warming.
So, with the nuclear renaissance firmly under way, I believe that a major breakthrough in 2006 could include such things as new plant designs. New plant designs will advance toward certification and additional plants will be ordered from vendors, providing irrefutable evidence that the next generation of plants can be competitive. A number of countries with burgeoning energy demand will announce their first entry into nuclear plant construction. Already we've seen announcements from Indonesia, Vietnam and Turkey. And utilities in the US will advance their site licensing initiatives, positioning themselves to join Asia and Europe in ordering new plants.
Three other things of notable significance could occur in 2006. First, trade in nuclear technology with India is likely to be approved by the vast majority of countries who are signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. If so, India will be able to purchase uranium from other countries to supply its rapidly escalating requirements for its nuclear power program. Second, several countries are likely to make significant progress in demonstrating the safe disposal of used fuel while preserving the option of recycling for future energy requirements. And third, countries that have stepped outside the bounds of the Non-Proliferation Treaty will be encouraged to return.
Will Cameco change its contracting strategy to get more benefit from higher uranium prices?
Marketing uranium and conversion services is a relationship business. Unlike gold and base metals, there is no central selling organization or exchange. Cameco's uranium, then, is sold under long-term contracts negotiated individually with each of our valued utility customers. Volumes sold on the spot market in aggregate represent only 10% to 15% of annual global uranium consumption, and are far too small and infrequent for a major producer like Cameco to rely on. Customers with highly valued nuclear plants that now have life extensions and only operate on uranium, eschew dependence on the spot market, preferring the security provided by long-term contracts with a reliable supplier. It is very unlikely that customers would leave themselves exposed in any significant way to the vagaries of the spot market.
When prices were low due to inventory liquidation and with the abundance of supply, contracting favoured the buyer with quantity flexibility and low fixed and ceiling price protection. Now that supplies are more difficult to find, fixed prices have increased and ceiling price protection has either disappeared or been lifted to very high levels. Quantity flexibility has been eliminated or severely curtailed and more recently floor price protection for the seller has been available. Perhaps the most significant change is contract duration. When prices were low, utilities had little concern about uranium supplies and Cameco kept contract delivery terms short (three to four years). Today, contract durations of five to 10 years are common as both customer and supplier are placing much greater emphasis on long-term relationships.
During the recent period of rapid price increase, Cameco has retained its traditional portfolio weighting – 40% fixed pricing adjusted for inflation and 60% related to the market price (spot and long-term) at the time of delivery. Given the investments in growth we are making and the volatility inherent in any commodity, with uranium being no exception, we believe this balance is prudent. As we succeed, however, in obtaining meaningful floor price protection in our market-related contracts we review this strategy in light of our market expectations.
Do you believe current uranium prices adequately reflect the value of uranium? Do you believe forward demand will further increase the price of uranium?
How high can the uranium price go?
Are you confident Cameco will discover the next high-grade uranium mine?
- retain its large land position in the best hunting ground, Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin,
- establish a large property position in Arnhem Land in the Northern Territory of Australia outside Kakadu National Park, and
- look more globally for prospective areas.
Is Cameco's share price over valued? Why should we expect it to rise over the coming year or two?
REACTORS – OPERATING, PLANNED AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION
- 57 reactors are scheduled to be built in Asia, as energy demand is driven by rapid economic expansion. More than half of this growth will occur in China and India with plans to build 18 and 15 reactors respectively,
- in Russia, Ukraine and several other eastern European countries, it is anticipated that nine reactors will be built, offset by two closures in Bulgaria as a result of their accession to the European Union, for a net gain of seven reactors,
- Finland is building a new European Pressurized Water Reactor (EPR). Upon completion, the country will have five nuclear reactors. France has also announced the construction of the new EPR beginning in 2007, and
- in Canada, Bruce Power has committed to restart the two shutdown A units. The Province of New Brunswick will proceed with refurbishing the Point Lepreau reactor, a 680 MW Candu. The refurbishment is expected to extend the life of the unit by 25 years.
REACTORS – PENDING












